Greek optimism

(eToro Blog) The Euro-Dollar is trading higher at 1.3162, not too far from the opening price as hopes build that Greece will be able to begin the process of swapping out its maturing debt with private bondholders as soon as Monday. On OpenBook, the dominance of bullish sentiment reflects traders’ optimism. OpenBook guru MPL1983, who expects that the EUR/USD will re-penetrate 1.32 area, earlier placed an order to buy the pair at the next dip. However, he currently holds several long positions, one already showing a small gain of 3.50%, while the others need that re-penetration to occur. Since yesterday this guru, who allocates 99.7% of his portfolio to the EUR/USD, has closed out two longs with an average return of more than 17%. For the month, he is on track to record a 167% return.

A spokesperson for the Greek government yesterday said that they expect that E.U. finance ministers will approve the plan, which is necessary to keep the Greek economy afloat for at least a little longer. Despite Greece’s optimism to the contrary, there remains quite a few headwinds to the E.U. agreement, not the least of which is growing distrust and doubt of Greece’s commitment.

Wolfgang Schaeuble, the German Finance Minister, started a war of words when he suggested on Wednesday that Greece postpone the April elections until after the reforms had been implemented, implying that a new electorate might not  follow through on the current government’s commitment to austerity and reform. Many Greeks were insulted by the innuendo and even the Greek president expressed his outrage at the German politician’s callousness.

OpenBook Guru anugiu, who is primarily an indices trader, trades only one currency pair, namely the EUR/USD. This trader’s small allocation of 4.7% has returned a profit of 33% over the past six months, just yesterday this trader closed out two short positions in the pair for an average return of 197%. A recently opened short position is currently showing a loss, but if the markets’ expectation of a positive resolution isn’t realized it’s likely this position will turn.